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← Rundown2026 Iowa Senate race

2026 election · U.S. Senate

2026 Iowa Senate race

Incumbent: Joni Ernst (Republican)

Ashley HinsonAshley HinsonRepublican47.9%
JTJoshua TurekDEMOCRATIC PARTY45.4%
vsHinson +2.53 polls
IJR Line — pollster average adjusted by community Influence
OverviewPollsPositionsMedia

Public polling

Every synced reading, newest first
TurekHinson
40%45%50%Jan 11Apr 23Aug 4Turek 45.8%Hinson 46.8%
Trend: trailing 5-poll average · hover a dot for the poll behind it

Declared candidates

Source: FEC filings + public polling
  • Joni Ernst
    Joni Ernst

    Republican · Incumbent

    FEC filing ↗
    Stated positions (17) ▾
    • Abortion: Supports protecting life and opposes taxpayer funding for Planned Parenthood. [1][2]
    • Abortion / Protecting Life: Supports restricting abortion access, including a ban after about five months, defunding Planned Parenthood, and the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act. [1]
    • Agriculture:

More races

Randy Feenstra2026 Iowa House race — Randy Feenstra's seat · same ballotAshley Hinson2026 Iowa House race — Ashley Hinson's seat · same ballotMariannette Miller-Meeks2026 Iowa House race — Mariannette Miller-Meeks's seat · same ballotZachary Nunn2026 Iowa House race — Zachary Nunn's seat · same ballotJohn CornynJames Talarico2026 Texas Senate race2026 Alaska Senate race

Seats and incumbents from the public congress-legislators dataset; candidates from FEC filings and Wikipedia polling rosters; polls and aggregation averages via Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA) and public polling exports. The community pick is an unscientific reader poll. All active races →

AveragesRace to the WH: Ashley Hinson +1.9RealClearPolitics: Ashley Hinson +0.7Average: Ashley Hinson +1.3
PollsterDatesCandidate%
Emerson College2026-08-02 → 2026-08-04Josh Turek45
Emerson College2026-08-02 → 2026-08-04Ashley Hinson48
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-06-23 → 2026-06-27Josh Turek50
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-06-23 → 2026-06-27Ashley Hinson46
New York Times/Siena University2026-06-15 → 2026-06-27Josh Turek46
New York Times/Siena University2026-06-15 → 2026-06-27Ashley Hinson48
Cygnal2026-06-19Ashley Hinson46
Cygnal2026-06-19Josh Turek44
Cygnal (R)2026-06-16 → 2026-06-19Ashley Hinson46
Cygnal (R)2026-06-16 → 2026-06-19Josh Turek44
Global Strategy Group (D)2026-06-08 → 2026-06-11Josh Turek47
Global Strategy Group2026-06-11Josh Turek47
Global Strategy Group2026-06-11Ashley Hinson45
Global Strategy Group (D)2026-06-08 → 2026-06-11Ashley Hinson45
Public Policy Polling2026-06-04Josh Turek46
Public Policy Polling2026-06-04Ashley Hinson46
Public Policy Polling (D)2026-06-03 → 2026-06-04Josh Turek46
Public Policy Polling (D)2026-06-03 → 2026-06-04Ashley Hinson46
Echelon Insights (R)2026-04-03 → 2026-04-09Ashley Hinson45
Echelon Insights (R)2026-04-03 → 2026-04-09Josh Turek46
Echelon Insights2026-04-09Josh Turek46
Echelon Insights2026-04-09Ashley Hinson45
GQR2026-03-16Josh Turek43
GQR (D)2026-03-10 → 2026-03-16Ashley Hinson47
GQR (D)2026-03-10 → 2026-03-16Josh Turek43
GQR2026-03-16Ashley Hinson47
Change Research2026-01-11Ashley Hinson44
Change Research (D)2026-01-08 → 2026-01-11Josh Turek41
Change Research (D)2026-01-08 → 2026-01-11Ashley Hinson44
Change Research2026-01-11Josh Turek41
Emphasizes support for production agriculture and farmers, drawing on personal farming background to shape policy priorities.
[1]
  • Border enforcement & immigration law: Supports securing the border, fingerprinting migrant minors, and detaining criminal noncitizens. [1][2]
  • Budget & Spending: Advocates for reducing federal spending and government waste, campaigning on a mission to cut wasteful Washington spending. [1]
  • Education: Believes education policy should be controlled at the state and local level rather than by federal government. [1]
  • Education and Jobs: Believes education should be handled at the state and local level by Iowans, not Washington. [1]
  • Election integrity: voter ID: Supports the SAVE Act to require proof of citizenship for voting. [1]
  • Energy & Environment: Supports an all-of-the-above energy approach expanding domestic production, energy independence, and wind power, while opposing heavy federal regulation. [1][2]
  • Energy production: Supports an all-of-the-above energy approach that increases domestic production and promotes energy independence. [1]
  • Federal spending & debt: Supports cutting wasteful spending and a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution. [1][2][3]
  • Gun policy: Defends the Second Amendment and opposes government efforts to infringe upon it. [1]
  • Health Care: Supports keeping health care decisions with patients, families, and doctors rather than federal government control. [1]
  • Health care: Believes patients, families, and doctors should control health care decisions, not Washington. [1]
  • Immigration and Border Security: Criticizes the Biden administration's border and immigration policies as a crisis and calls for reform and stronger enforcement. [1][2][3]
  • Student loan forgiveness: Opposes transferring student loan debt to taxpayers via bailouts. [1]
  • Women's sports: Supports protecting women's sports by barring biological males from female athletic programs. [1]
  • Ashley Hinson
    Ashley Hinson

    Republican

    Stated positions (17) ▾
    • Abortion: Does not support prosecuting women who have abortions but believes medical providers should follow state laws. [1]
    • Agriculture and Farm Labor: Supports reforming H-2A agricultural labor programs and reducing regulatory burdens on farmers, while opposing amnesty for undocumented workers. [1]
    • Border enforcement & immigration law: Opposes open borders and illegal immigrants accessing taxpayer benefits. [1]
    • Childcare: Supports policies to make child care more attainable for Iowa families. [1][2]
    • Congressional Ethics: As a Senate candidate, has pushed for a ban on congressional stock trading. [1]
    • Congressional stock trading: Supports banning Members of Congress and their spouses from trading stocks. [1]
    • Election integrity: voter ID: Supports the SAVE Act to make voting easy and cheating hard. [1]
    • Elections and Voting: Supports the SAVE Act to require proof of citizenship for voting, citing election integrity concerns. [1]
    • Energy: Has been characterized as opposed to expanding renewable energy mandates, according to a political survey. [1]
    • Federal Spending: Opposed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act COVID-19 relief package. [1]
    • Health care: Prefers direct deposits into HSAs over ACA insurance subsidies to protect consumer choice. [1]
    • Immigration: Supports strong border security, opposes amnesty for people in the country illegally, and disagreed with the Supreme Court ruling upholding birthright citizenship. [1][2][3]
    • School choice: Supports expanding school choice to give families freedom to choose educational options. [1]
    • Taxation and Economy: Supports extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay to boost take-home income for workers. [1]
    • Taxes: Supports permanently extending 2017 Trump tax cuts, no tax on tips and no tax on overtime. [1]
    • Veterans: Supports reforms to ensure veterans have access to mental health care regardless of zip code. [1]
    • Women's sports: Supports legislation preventing transgender athletes from competing in women's sports. [1]
  • AH
    Ashley Hinson Arenholz

    REPUBLICAN PARTY

    FEC filing ↗
    Stated positions (9) ▾
    • Abortion: Pro-life and opposes taxpayer funding for abortion providers or abortions. [1]
    • Birthright citizenship: Supports restricting birthright citizenship to those with at least one U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident parent. [1][2]
    • Border enforcement & immigration law: Supports securing the border, deporting illegal immigrants, and making legal immigration easier. [1][2][3]
    • Childcare: Supports policies to make child care more attainable and accessible for Iowa families. [1][2]
    • Election integrity: voter ID: Supports the SAVE Act to make voting easy but cheating hard. [1]
    • Energy production: Opposes government funding for renewable energy development. [1]
    • Federal spending & debt: Supports cutting wasteful spending. [1]
    • Fentanyl & drug enforcement: Supports accountability measures to ensure opioid settlement funds are used for prevention, treatment, and enforcement. [1]
    • School choice: Supports expanding school choice to give families options regardless of zip code. [1]
  • Jackie Norris
    Jackie Norris

    DEMOCRATIC PARTY

    FEC filing ↗
    Stated positions (6) ▾
    • Cell phone use in schools: Supports district-wide policies limiting cell phone use in classrooms to improve grades and school climate. [1][2]
    • Child care affordability: Supports expanding access to affordable child care and pre-K programs for working parents. [1]
    • Family affordability: Supports measures to make child care, health care, housing and essentials more affordable for Iowa families. [1][2][3]
    • Health care access: Opposes cuts to Medicaid and SNAP that limit access to critical programs. [1][2]
    • Public education: Supports strong public schools and reimagining district operations to address learning loss and enrollment trends. [1]
    • Youth mental health: Advocates for more mental health counselors and support services for young people. [1][2]
  • James Carlin
    James Carlin

    REPUBLICAN PARTY

    FEC filing ↗
    Stated positions (10) ▾
    • Abortion: Supports abortion ban after fetal heartbeat is detected and opposes taxpayer-funded abortions. [1][2]
    • Border enforcement & immigration law: Supports securing the border, finishing the wall, and the SAVE Act. [1][2][3]
    • Campaign finance reform: Supports banning Super PACs and campaign finance reform for election integrity. [1][2]
    • Congressional stock trading: Supports banning congressional stock trading. [1][2]
    • Congressional term limits: Supports term limits for elected officials. [1][2][3]
    • Election integrity: voter ID: Supports requiring identification to vote. [1][2]
    • Gold standard: Supports returning to a gold and silver backed currency and auditing the Federal Reserve. [1][2]
    • Gun policy: Supports concealed weapon reciprocity across states and opposes red flag laws. [1]
    • Parents' rights in education: Authored bills banning discussion of gender identity in schools. [1]
    • Regulation & permitting: Supports deregulation of industries and free market capitalism over monopolies. [1][2]
  • JS
    James Scholten

    DEMOCRATIC PARTY

    FEC filing ↗
    Stated positions (5) ▾
    • Agriculture policy: Supports breaking up large agribusiness companies and incentivizing more local food production. [1]
    • Antitrust reform: Supports antitrust reform to address corporate consolidation in agriculture and related industries. [1][2]
    • Campaign finance reform: Supports getting money out of politics and minimizing corporate and special-interest influence in the political system. [1]
    • Health care: Supports a public option and eventually Medicare-for-all. [1]
    • Prescription drug costs: Supports policies to lower prescription drug costs. [1]
  • JT
    Joshua Turek

    DEMOCRATIC PARTY

    FEC filing ↗
    Stated positions (14) ▾
    • Abortion: Supports codifying Roe v. Wade and letting women make decisions about their reproductive care. [1][2]
    • China & trade: Supports barring investments connected to the Chinese government or military. [1]
    • Civil Rights: Supports defending the right of Americans to marry who they love and opposes bathroom bills based on gender at birth. [1]
    • Congressional stock trading: Supports banning members of Congress and their spouses from trading stock. [1][2]
    • Congressional term limits: Supports term limits for members of Congress and Supreme Court justices. [1][2][3]
    • Energy production: Supports restoring production tax credits for wind turbines and solar installations. [1]
    • Free Trade: Supports ending chaotic tariffs that harm farms and commodity prices. [1][2][3]
    • Health Care: Supports a public option, capping prescription drug and insulin costs, and expanding the Affordable Care Act. [1][2][3]
    • Housing costs: Supports limiting private equity purchases of single-family homes and farmland and a moratorium on Wall Street home buys. [1][2][3]
    • Israel: Supports conditioning U.S. support for Israel. [1]
    • Regulation & permitting: Supports nationwide right-to-repair laws for farm equipment and mobility devices. [1][2]
    • School choice: Opposes allowing Educational Savings Accounts for private schools. [1]
    • Social Security & Medicare: Supports raising Social Security income and asset limits for individuals with disabilities. [1]
    • Taxes: Supports closing tax loopholes for billionaires and large businesses while cutting taxes for first-time homebuyers. [1][2]
  • NS
    Nathan Sage

    DEMOCRATIC PARTY

    FEC filing ↗
    Stated positions (9) ▾
    • Big money in politics: Supports getting big money out of Washington and opposing corporate influence. [1]
    • Campaign finance: Supports banning individuals from spending millions to buy elections and refusing corporate donations. [1]
    • Child care: Supports lowering the costs of child care. [1]
    • Data centers: Supports a nationwide moratorium on data center construction and federal AI regulations. [1]
    • Environment: Supports clean water and clean air and improving water quality. [1][2]
    • Health care: Supports lowering health care and prescription drug costs and extending Affordable Care Act tax credits. [1][2]
    • Taxes: Supports tax cuts for the working class. [1]
    • Unions: Supports strengthening union and workers' rights. [1][2]
    • Wages: Supports raising wages and the minimum wage. [1][2]
  • TR
    Thomas Raymond Dr. Laehn

    LIBERTARIAN PARTY

    FEC filing ↗
    Stated positions (8) ▾
    • Abortion: Supports deciding abortion fully at the state level and would support a total ban as a state-level official. [1]
    • Eminent domain abuse: Supports ending eminent domain abuse by prohibiting private companies from using state power to seize property for commercial gain, including carbon capture pipelines. [1][2][3]
    • Federal spending & debt: Supports fighting against the national debt and reducing excessive federal spending. [1]
    • Federalism: Supports keeping the national government out of policymaking spheres reserved for the states by the Constitution. [1]
    • Marijuana legalization: Supports decriminalization of marijuana possession and use and would introduce it as the first bill in the Senate. [1][2]
    • Restoring balance of powers: Supports restoring constitutional balance by curbing presidential power exercised through executive orders, agreements, and unilateral lawmaking. [1][2][3]
    • Stopping wasteful wars: Supports returning war-making power to Congress, bringing troops home from unnecessary conflicts, and conserving military strength for vital interests. [1]
    • Two-party system: Opposes the two-party system and seeks to restore political power to the people while eliminating the role of PACs and super PACs. [1][2][3]
  • ZP
    Zach P Wahls

    DEMOCRATIC PARTY

    FEC filing ↗
    Stated positions (12) ▾
    • Abortion: Supports codifying Roe v. Wade and protecting reproductive rights and maternal health. [1][2]
    • Agriculture policy: Supports ending tariffs, restoring the Packers and Stockyards Act, creating a Strategic Fertilizer Reserve, and expanding right-to-repair for farm equipment. [1]
    • Antitrust enforcement: Supports enforcing antitrust laws to break up corporate monopolies and lower costs. [1][2][3]
    • Campaign finance reform: Supports overturning Citizens United and passing campaign finance reform. [1]
    • Congressional term limits: Supports enacting 12-year term limits for Congress. [1]
    • Energy production: Supports defending clean energy tax credits, grid modernization, and building clean energy manufacturing in Iowa. [1]
    • Labor rights: Supports passing the PRO Act to restore workers' right to organize and bargain collectively. [1][2][3]
    • Minimum wage: Supports raising the federal minimum wage to at least $15 per hour and indexing it to inflation. [1][2][3]
    • Paid family leave: Supports guaranteeing paid family and medical leave for every worker. [1][2]
    • Social Security & Medicare: Supports protecting and expanding Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid; opposes cuts. [1][2]
    • Taxes: Supports a 5% annual wealth tax on billionaires and closing loopholes like carried interest. [1][2]
    • Taxes on tips: Supports eliminating taxes on tips. [1]
    • Dan SullivanMary Peltola
    Full rundown + map →
    📊 Polling averageAshley Hinson 47.9%Josh Turek 45.4%Hinson +2.53 polls · recency-weighted