Voter Registrations Signal Major Shift

Voter registration patterns across the United States have changed noticeably over the past decade, and the trend is more complicated than a simple Republican gain or Democratic decline.

According to a new USAFacts analysis, Democratic registration has fallen in 93 percent of counties in states that track partisan or unaffiliated voter registration, while Republican registration has increased in 77 percent of those counties since 2016. At the same time, however, Independent, minor-party, and unaffiliated registrations have also grown sharply.

That third category may be the most important part of the story.

USAFacts examined 1,360 counties across 27 states with broad party-registration data. In roughly three-quarters of those counties, the share of voters registered outside the two major parties increased over the past decade. That means the long-term movement is not simply from Democrats to Republicans. In many places, voters appear to be moving away from formal party identification altogether.

North Carolina offers one of the clearest examples. Democratic registration fell in all 100 counties, while Republican registration increased in 78. At the same time, unaffiliated registration rose in every county.

In 2016, approximately 40 percent of North Carolina voters were registered Democrats, while Republicans and unaffiliated or minor-party voters each accounted for about 30 percent. A decade later, Democratic registration had fallen to about 30 percent, Republican registration remained near 30 percent, and unaffiliated or minor-party registration had climbed to roughly 40 percent.

Colorado shows a different version of the same broader trend.

The state spent much of the 20th century leaning Republican before becoming increasingly Democratic in statewide elections during the 2000s and 2010s. Yet party registration there has been moving away from both major parties. Between 2016 and 2026, unaffiliated and minor-party registration rose from about 38 percent to 54 percent. Democratic registration declined from 31 percent to 24 percent, while Republican registration fell from 31 percent to 22 percent.

The result is a state in which neither major party comes close to representing a majority of registered voters.

Oklahoma has moved in a different direction. Once associated with the Democratic South, the state became increasingly Republican over several decades. By 2016, about 46 percent of registered voters were Republicans, 40 percent were Democrats, and 15 percent were Independent, unaffiliated, or registered with minor parties.

By 2026, Republican registration had climbed to roughly 53 percent. Democratic registration had fallen sharply to about 25 percent, while Independent and minor-party registration increased to around 22 percent.

West Virginia experienced one of the most dramatic Democratic declines. According to the USAFacts analysis, roughly 250,000 voters, representing about 17 percent of the state’s registration share, moved away from the Democratic Party between 2016 and 2026.

Nationally, Democratic registration declined across urban, suburban, and rural counties, with the largest losses occurring in rural areas. Democrats still represent the largest total number of registered party-affiliated voters nationwide, according to USAFacts, but their share declined in approximately 1,260 of the 1,360 counties included in the analysis.

Still, registration numbers have important limitations.

Registering as unaffiliated does not necessarily mean a voter has stopped supporting one of the major parties. Someone may leave the Democratic Party on paper and continue voting for Democratic candidates. The same applies to Republicans. Registration data also cannot show whether changes were caused by voters switching parties, new voters entering the rolls, inactive voters being removed, or population shifts between states and counties.

That distinction matters because elections are ultimately decided by turnout, not registration totals.

Matt Carpenter, director of FRC Action, told The Washington Stand that both major parties have undergone significant changes since Donald Trump entered national politics in 2015. He described the Democratic coalition as increasingly wealthier, more suburban, and more educated than the coalition that elected Barack Obama, while the Republican coalition has become more reliant on working-class voters and small-business owners.

Those changes have altered the political makeup of both parties, but they have not necessarily translated into predictable election results.

Carpenter also pointed out that although Republicans have made gains among voters without college degrees, Democrats tend to perform strongly among groups with relatively high voter-turnout rates. That can narrow or erase registration advantages once ballots are actually cast.

This is less about one party simply replacing the other and more about voters becoming increasingly detached from formal party labels. Republicans have gained registration share in many counties, Democrats have lost ground in even more, and unaffiliated voters have become a major force in their own right.

The Western Journal

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