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← Rundown2026 Texas Senate race

2026 election · U.S. Senate

2026 Texas Senate race

Incumbent: John Cornyn (Republican)

James TalaricoJames TalaricoDemocratic48%
Ken PaxtonKen PaxtonRepublican45.4%
vsTalarico +2.67 polls
IJR Line — pollster average adjusted by community Influence
OverviewPollsPositionsMedia

Public polling

Every synced reading, newest first
TalaricoPaxton
0%30%50%Sep 24Feb 26Jul 31Talarico 47.8%Paxton 44.8%Brown 2.0%else 4.5%
Trend: trailing 5-poll average · hover a dot for the poll behind it

Declared candidates

Source: FEC filings + public polling
  • John Cornyn
    John Cornyn

    Republican · Incumbent

    Stated positions (5) ▾
    • Economy & Fiscal Responsibility: Supports reducing taxation on Americans and businesses to foster economic growth, job creation, and lower deficits and national debt. [1]
    • Energy & Environment: Supports maximizing domestic energy production of fossil fuels and renewables by reducing government intervention and promoting free market policies. [1]
    • Health Care: Supports repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act, lowering prescription drug prices, and shifting health policy decisions to states, doctors, and patients. [1]

More races

Jodey C. Arrington2026 Texas House race — Jodey C. Arrington's seat · same ballotBrian Babin2026 Texas House race — Brian Babin's seat · same ballotJohn R. Carter2026 Texas House race — John R. Carter's seat · same ballotHenry Cuellar2026 Texas House race — Henry Cuellar's seat · same ballotJoaquin Castro2026 Texas House race — Joaquin Castro's seat · same ballotMichael Cloud2026 Texas House race — Michael Cloud's seat · same ballot

Seats and incumbents from the public congress-legislators dataset; candidates from FEC filings and Wikipedia polling rosters; polls and aggregation averages via Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA) and public polling exports. The community pick is an unscientific reader poll. All active races →

Averages270toWin: James Talarico +3Decision Desk HQ: James Talarico +2.8Race to the WH: James Talarico +1.6RealClearPolitics: James Talarico +1
PollsterDatesCandidate%
Wedgewood Polls2026-07-30 → 2026-07-31James Talarico48
YouGov Blue (D)2026-07-15 → 2026-07-31James Talarico48
YouGov Blue (D)2026-07-15 → 2026-07-31Ken Paxton45
Wedgewood Polls2026-07-30 → 2026-07-31Ken Paxton46
Texas Southern University2026-07-27 → 2026-07-30James Talarico47
Texas Southern University2026-07-27 → 2026-07-30Ken Paxton45
Texas Southern University2026-07-27 → 2026-07-30Ted Brown2
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-07-23 → 2026-07-27Ken Paxton48
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-07-23 → 2026-07-27James Talarico51
Texas Public Opinion Research2026-07-15 → 2026-07-17Ken Paxton40
Texas Public Opinion Research2026-07-15 → 2026-07-17Ted Brown1
Texas Public Opinion Research2026-07-15 → 2026-07-17James Talarico45
A2 Insights2026-06-23 → 2026-06-28Other candidate3
A2 Insights2026-06-23 → 2026-06-28Ken Paxton46
A2 Insights2026-06-23 → 2026-06-28James Talarico48
New York Times/Siena University2026-06-19 → 2026-06-27Ken Paxton47
New York Times/Siena University2026-06-19 → 2026-06-27James Talarico47
SoCal Strategies (R)2026-06-21Ken Paxton49
SoCal Strategies (R)2026-06-21James Talarico47
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project2026-06-05 → 2026-06-12Ken Paxton43
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project2026-06-05 → 2026-06-12Ted Brown3
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project2026-06-05 → 2026-06-12Someone else3
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project2026-06-05 → 2026-06-12James Talarico42
Quantus Insights (R)2026-06-03 → 2026-06-04Another candidate4
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University2026-06-01 → 2026-06-04Wouldn't vote1
Quantus Insights (R)2026-06-03 → 2026-06-04James Talarico43
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University2026-06-01 → 2026-06-04Ken Paxton46
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University2026-06-01 → 2026-06-04James Talarico46
Quantus Insights (R)2026-06-03 → 2026-06-04Ken Paxton45
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University2026-06-01 → 2026-06-04Someone else2
Texas Public Opinion Research2026-05-27 → 2026-05-28James Talarico47
Texas Public Opinion Research2026-05-27 → 2026-05-28Ken Paxton44
Texas Public Opinion Research2026-05-27 → 2026-05-28Ted Brown1
Texas Public Opinion Research2026-05-27 → 2026-05-28Would not vote in that race2
Public Policy Polling (D)2026-05-22 → 2026-05-23Ken Paxton38
Public Policy Polling (D)2026-05-22 → 2026-05-23James Talarico45
Public Policy Polling (D)2026-05-22 → 2026-05-23Ted Brown3
Texas Southern University2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06Ted Brown2
Texas Southern University2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06Ken Paxton45
Texas Southern University2026-04-22 → 2026-05-06James Talarico45
Texas Public Opinion Research2026-04-17 → 2026-04-20James Talarico46
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project2026-04-10 → 2026-04-20James Talarico42
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project2026-04-10 → 2026-04-20Someone else5
Texas Public Opinion Research2026-04-17 → 2026-04-20Ken Paxton41
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project2026-04-10 → 2026-04-20Ken Paxton34
Impact Research (D)2026-03-12 → 2026-03-17Ted Brown5
Impact Research (D)2026-03-12 → 2026-03-17Ken Paxton43
Impact Research (D)2026-03-12 → 2026-03-17James Talarico44
Public Policy Polling (D)2026-03-04 → 2026-03-05Ken Paxton45
Public Policy Polling (D)2026-03-04 → 2026-03-05James Talarico47
University of Houston/YouGov2026-01-20 → 2026-01-31Ted Brown3
University of Houston/YouGov2026-01-20 → 2026-01-31Ken Paxton46
University of Houston/YouGov2026-01-20 → 2026-01-31James Talarico44
Emerson College2026-01-10 → 2026-01-12Ken Paxton46
Emerson College2026-01-10 → 2026-01-12James Talarico46
Ragnar Research Partners (R)2025-11-12 → 2025-11-17Ken Paxton44
Ragnar Research Partners (R)2025-11-12 → 2025-11-17James Talarico44
University of Houston/Texas Southern University2025-09-19 → 2025-10-01James Talarico46
University of Houston/Texas Southern University2025-09-19 → 2025-10-01Ken Paxton49
UT Tyler2025-09-17 → 2025-09-24Ken Paxton38
UT Tyler2025-09-17 → 2025-09-24James Talarico37
UT Tyler2025-09-17 → 2025-09-24Someone else8
  • Immigration & Border Security: Supports securing the southern border as a top priority and commonsense reforms to improve legal immigration. [1][2]
  • Second Amendment: Defends the constitutional right to keep and bear arms and promotes America's outdoor sporting traditions and wildlife conservation. [1]
  • James Talarico
    James Talarico

    Democratic

    Stated positions (5) ▾
    • Civil Rights: Supports protecting the legality of gay marriage and LGBTQ+ rights. [1]
    • Corruption: Opposes corporate PAC money and billionaire donors buying political power through tax breaks and gerrymandering. [1]
    • Economy: Opposes trickle-down economics and supports higher wages and organized labor. [1][2]
    • Education: Opposes school voucher programs pushed by billionaire donors. [1]
    • Immigration: Supports border security to stop cartels and traffickers while welcoming legal immigrants and pursuing comprehensive reform. [1]
  • Ken Paxton
    Ken Paxton

    Republican

    Stated positions (4) ▾
    • Cryptocurrency: Supports the CLARITY Act to provide regulatory certainty for digital assets innovation. [1]
    • Healthcare: Supports taking on Big Pharma and Big Food to increase transparency and promote healthier outcomes. [1]
    • Immigration: Supports securing the border and deporting illegal aliens as part of America First priorities. [1][2]
    • Taxation: Supports tax deductions for housing, healthcare, and healthy living expenses to reduce costs for Texans. [1][2]
    • Full rundown + map →
    📊 Polling averageJames Talarico 48%Ken Paxton 45.4%Other candidate 3%Ted Brown 1.7%Talarico +2.67 polls · recency-weighted