Crowley Edges Tiffany in Wisconsin Poll, Toss-Up

Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race shows Democrat David Crowley holding a narrow edge over Republican Tom Tiffany among likely voters (49% to 44%), with 7% undecided, according to the latest Marquette Law School poll conducted after the August primaries. Among registered voters, the race is essentially tied at 44% for each candidate with 12% undecided, and Crowley leads decisively among independents (55% to 16%). The poll’s margin of error is ±4 percentage points, meaning the Crowley lead could be erased by sampling variation. Enthusiasm for November voting favors Republicans (55%) over Democrats (49%), a gap analysts partly attribute to lower enthusiasm among supporters of Democratic contender Francesca Hong and limited familiarity with Crowley in parts of the state. Crowley is better known in Milwaukee, while about 38% have not heard enough about him to form an opinion, compared with 18% for Tiffany. Campaign events highlight contrasts: Tiffany touts farm and infrastructure priorities and opposes subsidies for data centers, while Crowley emphasizes disaster response readiness and carries an incumbent-aligned endorsement dynamic, including a high-profile endorsement from former Gov. Tony Evers, with observers labeling the race a Toss-up or Lean Democratic.