EIA Lifts 2026 Oil Forecast Amid Hormuz Turmoil

The U.S. Energy Information Administration lifted its 2026 oil-price forecasts due to renewed Strait of Hormuz disruptions, signaling a slower rebound into early 2027 with inventories remaining under five-year lows as U.S. imports stay subdued. Brent is expected around the high $80s and WTI in the low $80s, with global drawdowns easing only gradually into 2027. Prices have rallied on renewed Middle East tensions, weak prospects for a Hormuz reopening, and geopolitical risk surrounding US-Iran negotiations, including Iran’s leadership reshuffle and Tehran’s insistence on broader concessions before any full reopening. Iran’s demands—compensation for damages, sanctions relief, and end to U.S. military action—have complicated talks with Oman and others and cloud the path to reopening the strait, despite progress toward a shipping accord. Separately, regional price movements reflect softer domestic pump prices in the Philippines, while U.S. markets saw gains in Brent and WTI on the back of policy and supply concerns, including continued declines in U.S. strategic reserves. Overall, the outlook remains fragile with oil markets sensitive to Iran-Oman diplomacy, potential supply constraints, and policy signals from Washington.