Copper climbs toward record; tariff threat looms

Copper prices surged toward record highs as the threat of U.S. import tariffs incentivized traders to move metal into U.S. warehouses, draining inventories elsewhere and tightening what would otherwise be a global surplus. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange hit around $14,343 per ton, closing in on the 14,527.50 record as large warrant cancellations pulled metal from LME and SHFE stocks into COMEX warehouses. Analysts say the rally reflects a shortage of copper outside the United States rather than a true global deficit, with prices supported by U.S. demand and the prospect of tariffs on refined copper from 2027. COMEX inventories rose for 46 straight days to a record 675,185 metric tons, a sign of ongoing arbitrage activity amid higher U.S. prices. Forecasts from CRU suggest the market is at best balanced rather than surplus, contingent on continued inflows of copper to the United States. U.S. imports of refined copper cathodes remain robust, further contributing to the shifting balance and price dynamics.