Bank of Mexico lifts 2026 growth outlook to 1.5%

Mexico’s stocks fell for a second day as Banxico raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.5% while warning that services inflation and high rates will keep borrowing costs elevated. The S&P/BMV IPC ended down 0.55% with weakness broad across miners, banks, and retailers, and the peso stayed near 17 per dollar ahead of Friday's Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Warsh. INEGI data showed July informal-sector jobs surged by about 1.08 million while formal-sector positions fell by roughly 413,000, lifting informality to 56.2% and marking a drag on formal‑sector growth. Despite net job gains of about 671,000 in July, analysts warn that the informal sector's dominance signals ongoing growth stagnation and weak investment. INEGI also reported 2Q26 real GDP up 1.4% QoQ and a record first-half $34.97 billion in FDI, underscoring a nearshoring investment push even as the economy slows. The Bank of Mexico maintained the policy rate at 6.5% and signaled inflation timing pushed to late 2027, while trade frictions persist with the US and Canada, with Mexico planning Samurai bond placements and expanding cooperation with South Korea.