Trump’s Ukraine Pivot May Be Only Way To Get Putin To The Table
President Donald Trump has long worked to bring peace to Ukraine, but his recent major policy adjustments in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reticence toward peace could finally present Trump’s chance to…
President Donald Trump has long worked to bring peace to Ukraine, but his recent major policy adjustments in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reticence toward peace could finally present Trump’s chance to make a deal, foreign policy experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Trump announced Monday that the U.S. will be sending weapons to Ukraine through NATO, marking a turnaround from previous policy that was generally skeptical of supplying Kiev with weapons while the U.S. attempted to push negotiations between Moscow and Ukraine. While many see Trump’s move as an escalation, it may be the only way to get Putin to come to the table given that reasoning with Putin on peaceful terms has so far proven to be a lost cause, experts told the DCNF.
“Trump has been very straightforward in the past that he would prefer Putin sit down with Zelenskyy and come up with some sort of reasonable way to go forward,” Steven Bucci, visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation and former Pentagon official, told the DCNF. “But Putin’s not cooperating. You know, he’s saying, ‘Oh, sure, I want to negotiate,’ then just continuing to attack very aggressively and very pointedly at civilian targets.”
Trump has become publicly frustrated with Putin, accusing the leader of stalling peace talks to continue his military campaign. Trump also threatened Putin on Monday with sanctions and 100% secondary tariffs against Russian business partners if Putin does not come to the peace table within 50 days. Republicans and Democrats in Congress are also pursuing a bill that would add 500% tariffs on imports coming from countries buying uranium, gas and oil from Moscow.
However, Putin has reportedly shrugged off these threats, remaining confident that he can manage any economic measures taken by the West. Trump has pushed off deadlines for foreign actors in the past, such as in pursuing a buyer for TikTok, but has taken a hardline with others, such as his 60-day ultimatum to Iran to negotiate its nuclear program.
“I see no reason for Russia to think that any kind of U.S. economic pressure will force capitulation,” George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute, told the DCNF. “As you recall, the Biden administration approached things in much the same way.”
Under former President Joe Biden, numerous sanctions were levied against Russia while also heavily arming Ukraine in their fight. However, after three years, the situation on the ground has not changed much, with both sides continuing to engage in tit-for-tat missile and drone strikes while fighting on the ground remains stagnant.
During a call on July 4, Trump reportedly suggested that Zelenskyy should strike deep inside Russian territory with U.S.-provided long-range missiles, but White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later said to Newsweek that Trump was “merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing.”
Early in the Trump administration, the president focused much of his attention on Zelenskyy when attempting to negotiate peace, pausing military aid to Ukraine after Trump had a February dust-up with the Ukrainian leader in the Oval Office. However, Putin continued to strike Ukraine while, at the same time, paradoxically expressing his desire for negotiations and peace.
Beebe believes that the Trump administration doesn’t fully understand that for Russia, the war has more to do with their strategic posture in Europe than it does territory in Ukraine.
“This war is fundamentally a geopolitical conflict over the shape of Europe’s security order, Russia’s place in that order and Ukraine’s place in that order,” Beebe told the DCNF. “They have approached this as if it’s primarily a territorial problem that Russia wants land that Ukraine holds, and then if we simply recognize that land, the Russians will have their key demands satisfied and then we can end this conflict.”
Trump said Monday that the weapons to Ukraine will be bought by NATO, with the alliance taking care of the distribution. Ukraine received $66.9 billion worth of U.S. armaments from the start of the war in 2022 through March, according to the State Department.
Russia is still demanding that any peace deal would include the recognition of much of the territory captured during the war, but Ukraine has not shown openness to ceding the territories.
Beebe thinks that any peace deal will likely redraw the borders of the two nations, in effect, and that Russia mostly wants assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO above all else. To Beebe, Trump has to set a framework of what is on the table in negotiations before even considering a ceasefire.
“I think the terms of a territorial compromise are going to have to be a mutual recognition that neither side is going to change the territorial status quo by force,” Beebe told the DCNF. “They will agree to disagree over where the territorial boundary between Ukraine and Russia should be.”
The State Department and the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry did not respond to the DCNF’s requests for comment.
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