Nate Silver Drops Midterm Election Forecast — With Texas as 'Lean D'

The midterm elections are just a few months away and Nate Silver released his forecast model Tuesday and predicted the Texas Senate seat would flip blue.

Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) lost in the primary to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who had President Donald Trump’s endorsement but is considered the weaker candidate in the general election. This is is because of scandals, lawsuits, and controversies as well as a contentious divorce.

The Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, has had a slight lead in recent polls. Past Democrats running statewide in Texas, such as former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), have had better poll results than they performed on Election Day.

Commentators have noted Paxton’s negative attributed as a candidate, the downward drag of Trump and the GOP’s poor polling on key issues like immigration and the economy may give Talarico a chance.

Silver is now saying the Lone Star State could in fact flip blue.

In his 2026 midterm forecast model — which he has given the moniker “FLIPR” — Silver rates Texas as “Lean D.”

Silver acknowledged “Democrats certainly have plenty of problems.”

These include a “fundraising crisis” and battles between the party’s establishment and the more progressive wing of the party.

However, Talarico’s campaign is viewed as one of his top picks to flip blue, rating it as a 63% chance of pickup.

Silver ranked only two other states’ chances of flipping blue higher than Texas. They are North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is running against former chair of the RNC and North Carolina GOP Michael Whatley to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), and Maine, where Troy Jackson is challenging Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).