JOHN TEICHERT: Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities Can Still Be Stopped

Last Saturday’s meeting between the United States and Iran was an important diplomatic first step towards achieving American national security priorities. Getting Iran to the negotiating table was necessary to realize a near-universal objective – preventing the nuclear weaponization of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Now is the ideal time for the Trump Administration to seize this momentum as the United States negotiates from a clear position of strength. In this high-stakes game of geopolitical poker, the United States and President Donald Trump have the cards.

President Trump made clear that he is relentlessly focused on a singular primary objective in these talks – preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. He has clearly communicated this redline backed by resolute statements that all options are on the table. Based on such clarity, the prevailing economic and military situation, and the current significant power imbalance, the United States can pull Iran away from the nuclear threshold and President Trump can capitalize upon this unique moment in global history.

The power imbalance of this moment stems from the primary objective of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Above all, the Supreme Leader of Iran values regime survival. Military and economic factors point towards one inevitable conclusion for him – the best way to protect the regime is to relinquish his nuclear pursuits.

Iran is weaker and more militarily vulnerable than it has been in decades. Twice in the last year, their large-scale missile and drone strikes were successfully rebuffed by Israel, the United States, and regional partners with no significant damage. Also twice in the last year, Israel struck targets in Iran, symbolically and practically hitting air defenses at Iran’s prized Natanz nuclear development location and eliminating air defense and missile development sites throughout the country. The precise targeting in downtown Tehran that killed a senior Hamas leader was a further demonstration that Israel is able to strike any target at any time in Iran. Meanwhile Iran’s feckless attempts at large-scale strikes proved their profound relative weakness.

The Iranian proxy empire has also been decimated in the last several months. Hezbollah has been decapitated and diminished, Hamas has been isolated and neutered, and Iran’s Syrian proxy has been eliminated. These geopolitical realities have substantially eased pressure on Israel and marginalized Iranian deterrence against the Jewish homeland. Without these previously-potent capabilities, Iran’s direct and indirect military options are drastically limited.

Military threats from the United States and Israel loom large in the minds of the Iranian leaders. President Trump’s ability to employ precision strike capabilities against high-value targets is backed by a willingness to follow through on his threats – as seen in early 2020 with the bold eliminationof General Qasem Soleimani.

The current positioning of two U.S. carrier strike groups and a half dozen B-2 bombers with the capability to employ the 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator properly postures the United States to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat through force if necessary. Furthermore, unlike the previous U.S. administration that counterproductively restrained Israeli responses to Iranian attacks against their homeland, the firm expectation is that President Trump is willing to green-light a full attack by Israel that could decimate military, economic, and leadership targets in Iran.

Economic threats provide particularly potent negotiating tools for the United States as well. The Iranian population suffers from economic conditions that are already dismal, with skyrocketing inflation and surging unemployment. A full return to President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign, and the United Nation’s sanctions that are set to automatically reconstitute in October, would bring the Islamic Republic to its knees, ruining the economy and fanning the flames of popular discontent that are already a threat to the Ayatollah. Absent a negotiated settlement, the application of this economic leverage brings into question the survival of Iran’s revolutionary regime. The New York Times reported that this was the primary factor that brought the Ayatollah’s representatives to the negotiating table last weekend. The Supreme Leader is rightfully concerned, and the United States must intentionally exacerbate his anxiety.

While the Islamic Republic is potentially weeks away from official nuclear capability, intelligence reports indicate that Iran is not imminently capable of weaponizing their high-grade nuclear stockpiles. That reality provides a closing window of opportunity for the next few months where Iran faces a one-sided vulnerability, and they know it.

Once intelligence indicates that Iran continues to pursue nuclear weaponization during this window, or that it is strategically stalling or failing to negotiate in good faith, then the United States and Israel must act with their full might, and Iran must believe that such threats are real and ruinous. Yet, the diplomatic positioning of the United States is overwhelmingly favorable. Thus, through strength-based leadership and with the right cards in its hand, the United States will see success in its high-stakes nuclear talks that will benefit humanity by eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat.

United States Air Force Brigadier General John Teichert (ret) is a prolific author and leading expert on foreign affairs and military strategy. He served as commander of Joint Base Andrews and Edwards Air Force Base, was the U.S. senior defense official to Iraq, and recently retired as the assistant deputy undersecretary of the Air Force, international affairs. General Teichert maintains a robust schedule of media engagements, and his activities can best be followed at johnteichert.com and on LinkedIn.

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