JD Vance Leads Gavin Newsom In Head-To-Head 2028 Matchup: Poll

Vice President JD Vance has held onto a narrow lead over Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a new hypothetical poll of the 2028 presidential race.

The poll, conducted by Emerson College, shows that 46% of participants would support Vance, 45% would vote for Newsom and 10% were undecided. Neither of the lawmakers have formally announced a bid for president, but are currently seen as their parties’ likely frontrunners in the next presidential race.

The poll is the latest in Emerson’s series of head-to-head match-ups between the vice president and governor, which found Vance less than a point ahead of Newsom in a late August poll. In July, Emerson’s poll had Vance leading Newsom by 3%.

“The 2026 congressional ballot and the hypothetical 2028 matchup between Vance and Newsom also remain unchanged, suggesting a polarized electorate where individual issues may not be enough to sway overall opinion,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling, said in a press release. “It will be interesting to see whether ‘threats to democracy’ will influence voter attitudes, or if the dominant factor continues to be the economy, which voters, particularly women and younger voters, see as heading in the wrong direction.”

The Democratic governor has been expanding his national profile this year, which has led him to become a leading voice in opposing Trump. Newsom also gained national attention for imitating the president’s communication style on social media.

Vance said Newsom’s attempts to “mimic” the president were inauthentic during an appearance on the Will Cain Show in August.

Newsom has also led the effort to gerrymander California in response to Texas’ mid-decade redistricting. California voters will vote on a Newsom-backed map that seeks to flip five seats from Republican to Democratic via Proposition 50 on Nov. 4 — an effort that has received a mixed reception from voters in the Golden State.

Vance is also tied up in the redistricting battle, as he has made two trips to Indiana in three months to push for the state to redraw its lines to add more GOP seats. It’s unclear if the effort will succeed as Republican Indiana Gov. Mike Braun toldthe White House in early October he was concerned about the effort’s chances in the State Senate.

Both Vance and Newsom also exchanged blows over social media in June following President Donald Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to Los Angeles to quell protests against immigration raids and protest border patrol agents in the area.

Emerson College’s poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters and was conducted Oct. 13 and 14. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3%.

Newsom’s staff directed the 🏢Daily Caller News Foundation to a specific office for comment and have not immediately responded. Vance’s office also did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

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