Elon Musk Predicts Timeline for Landing a Human on Mars
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk weighed in on when he believes a human will land on Mars. Lex Fridman interviewed Musk during an episode of his podcast. According to his website , Fridman is “an AI researcher working on…
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk weighed in on when he believes a human will land on Mars.
Lex Fridman interviewed Musk during an episode of his podcast. According to his website, Fridman is “an AI researcher working on autonomous vehicles, human-robot interaction, and machine learning at MIT and beyond.”
His podcast includes conversations about “the nature of intelligence, consciousness, love, and power.”
Fridman asked Musk, “When do you think SpaceX will land a human being on Mars?”
Musk replied, “Best case is about five years. Worst case, ten years.”
When asked what the determining factors are, Musk explained, “It’s fundamentally engineering the vehicle. Starship is the most complex and advanced rocket that’s ever been made by, I don’t know order of magnitude or something like that. It’s a lot. It’s really next level.”
He continued, “The fundamental optimization of Starship is minimizing the cost per ton per orbit and ultimately cost per ton to the surface of Mars…It is actually the thing that needs to be optimized. There is a certain cost per to do the surface of Mars where we can afford to establish a self-sustaining city, and then above that, we cannot afford to do it. Right now, you can fly to Mars for a trillion dollars.”
Watch the episode of the podcast below:
According to Musk, “No amount of money can get you a ticket to Mars. We need to get that to something that is actually possible at all.”
He told Fridman the United States does not “just want to have, with Mars, flags, and footprints and then not come back for a half century like we did with the moon. In order to pass a very important great filter, we need to be a multi-planet species.”
Musk argued this is the first time “it’s been possible to extend life beyond earth,” adding, “That window of opportunity may be open for a long time, and I hope it is, but it also may be open for a short time. I think it is wise for us to act quickly while the window is open.”
In March, he said the company would “be landing Starships on Mars well before 2030.”
Musk went on, “The really hard threshold is making Mars Base Alpha self-sustaining.”