Polls Showed Abdul El-Sayed Would Crush Haley Stevens In Michigan Primary. They Were Dead Wrong.

Polls repeatedly indicated former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed held a comfortable lead against Democratic Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens, though the election results proved them wrong.

El-Sayed narrowly defeated Stevens in a 48.5% to 47.5% vote Wednesday after finishing neck-and-neck with his opponent in the Michigan primary race Tuesday, The Associated Press results showed. However, polls suggested that El-Sayed held a significant lead against Stevens prior to primary day.

An Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV survey from July 30 showed El-Sayed led Stevens 54% to 39%. The survey suggested that voters under the age of 50 and independents supported El-Sayed by significant margins, prompting his sizable lead.

A Mitchell Research & Communications poll from late July found El-Sayed held a 14-point lead against Stevens. A Tavern Research poll showed El-Sayed held a 10-point lead over Stevens, 46% to 36%.

El-Sayed held a 16-point lead in a Tulchin Research poll and a 13-point lead in a Data for Progress survey.

More than 1.5 million ballots were counted, making it the highest number of ballots counted in a non-presidential Democratic primary in Michigan since at least 1998, according to CNN.

Stevens earned endorsements from the Democratic establishment, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and outside groups spent over $60 million to help her beat El-Sayed. The race was the most expensive Democratic Senate primary race in U.S. history, with total spending exceeding $80 million.

Democratic Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar, former Ukraine Ambassador Bridget Brink and former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam lost their races in Michigan after being endorsed by the establishment. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar, the 13th Congressional District Democratic Party Organization and Democratic Mississippi Rep. Bennie Thompson endorsed Thanedar, who lost to Democratic Michigan state Rep. Donavan McKinney in a 51.9% to 48.1% vote.

Further-left Democrats and DSA candidates defeated longtime incumbents and establishment-backed candidates in the New York and Colorado races. DSA candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated five-term incumbent Democratic Rep. Adriano Espaillat in New York’s 13th district in June, while socialist Melat Kiros beat incumbent Democratic Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette, who served 29 years in Congress.