FBI Releases Latest Data On Post-SCOTUS Crime Wave That Hasn’t Arrived

The FBI’s new crime report is out, and it’s safe to say that those who listened to the predictions of anti-Second Amendment groups are wondering where the crime is.

Since the Supreme Court struck down New York’s discretionary system for issuing concealed carry permits in June 2022, groups like Everytown, Giffords and Brady United predicted public safety would be diminished by the decision. However, the FBI’s data noted that in 2025, the murder rate went down 18.1%, while violent crime fell by over 9%.

One survey of crime that is widely cited is the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) carried out by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), which showed from 2021 to 2023, the NCVS reported a 36% increase in the violent crime victimization rate, according to the report.

The FBI shifted how it gathered the data after 2020. In 2021, nearly 40% of police agencies did not send the data to the FBI. However, for the 2023 report, 72% of agencies reportedly participated. The FBI’s release of the new crime figures stated that over 17,000 agencies participated in sending crime data for 2025, while 16,791 sent information on so-called “hate crimes.”

In a July 22 poll commissioned by the Crime Prevention Research Center, the number of people who reported carrying a concealed firearm went up from 24.3% in December 2024 to 30.9%. In other words, more people are carrying concealed.

This is not surprising for two reasons: First, since Bruen, states like California, New York and New Jersey can’t deny a permit because someone didn’t prove “good cause” to carry a firearm. Second, we’re also seeing many states going to “constitutional carry” where no permit is needed at all.

The result, if you believe the polling data, is that a would-be crook has a much larger chance of coming across an armed citizen when he is trying to commit his crimes. Armed citizens end up being far less understanding than a Soros prosecutor, and the result… well, we’ve seen the results in some recent news articles.

In other words, criminals are probably electing not to do things which might lead to an encounter with an armed citizen. So, it’s no wonder crime’s been dropping.